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美國這兩個州的抗疫表現為何差距如此之大?

美國這兩個州的抗疫表現為何差距如此之大?

Anjani Jain, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld 2021年09月03日
面對新冠疫情的再次升級,美國佛羅里達州州長和康涅狄格州州長的不同做法體現了領導者個人的潛在影響力。

美國康涅狄格州州長內德·拉蒙特(左)和佛羅里達州州長羅恩·德桑蒂斯。圖片來源:JOHN MOORE—GETTY IMAGES; MICHAEL REAVES—GETTY IMAGES

行政權力往往會受到復雜的地緣政治變化、反復無常的金融市場、顛覆性的新技術和重大自然災害等因素的限制,但關鍵領導人仍然可以對數百萬選民產生或積極或消極的深遠影響。面對新冠疫情的再次升級,美國佛羅里達州州長和康涅狄格州州長的不同做法體現了領導者個人的潛在影響力。

今年夏天,由于美國南方若干州的州長嘩眾取寵、耍弄政治手腕,公共衛生領域噩耗不斷。佛羅里達、得克薩斯和密蘇里州的新冠病例激增,致使德爾塔變體毒株迅速傳播。盡管這三州的人口僅為全美的17%,新發病例占比卻高達40%。三個州的州長無視科學和證據,采取玩世不恭的強硬立場,禁止雇主強制雇員接種疫苗和在室內佩戴口罩,甚至置尚不能接種疫苗的幼齡學童的安全于不顧。

佛州州長羅恩·德桑蒂斯甚至威脅說,如果學校按照美國疾病控制和預防中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)的指南要求教職員工采取佩戴口罩等保護性措施,就將削減教育經費和教職工薪酬。盡管如此,仍然有10個學區不顧德桑蒂斯的威脅,強制要求人們佩戴口罩。此外,迪士尼(Disney)、嘉年華郵輪公司(Carnival Cruise Line)、皇家加勒比郵輪公司(Royal Caribbean)以及挪威郵輪公司(Norwegian Cruise Line)也冒著每次被罰款5000美元的危險,拒絕服從德桑蒂斯關于乘客疫苗護照的禁令。

眼下,佛州各家醫院的急診室和重癥監護室已經接近飽和,90%的重癥監護床位被占用,其中大多數是新冠肺炎患者。這些住院病患90%以上沒有接種疫苗,佛州12歲至64歲人群的疫苗接種率僅為三分之一。

面對佛州大量居民尚未接種疫苗、極易感染德爾塔變體病毒的現狀,德桑蒂斯的回應是聽取那些反對佩戴口罩者的意見,而正是這些人,拋開科學研制、安全有效的疫苗,卻在鼓吹伊維菌素、羥基氯喹等藥效未經證實的牲畜驅蟲劑。

相反,康涅狄格州州長內德·拉蒙特則從習慣疫情爆發初期就依靠科學的防疫方法。早在2020年3月宣布新冠疫情時起,他便召集全球著名的病毒學家、微生物學家、流行病學家和商業領袖組成顧問小組,拋開意識形態影響,堅持依靠科學、證據和明智的管理措施開展工作。他與先前的唐納德·特朗普政府高層以及后來的喬·拜登政府領導人合作,令州內生產未曾有一天中斷,確保了所需的防護器材的供應,使學校得以提前開學。拉蒙特還積極促成了全美范圍內每周一次的州長會議,不嘩眾取寵,而是默默地開展跨黨派、跨部門合作,尋求高效解決問題。

正如拉蒙特最近所言:“我們的重啟委員會成員包括能夠幫助我們擺脫困境的科學家和大企業領導人,我在州政府內所做的努力就是讓更多的人可以參與到商討與決策中來?!彼炔粸檎文康某爸S科學家,也沒有恐嚇政府官員或威脅商業領袖。在此努力下,該州各年齡段的疫苗接種率均超過75%,達到全美前兩位,90%的老年人也接種了疫苗;而因為新冠肺炎導致的死亡率則在保持較低水平,在全美50個州中位列第35位。

本著這種致力于解決問題的工作方式和協調合作的領導風格,拉蒙特呼吁在學校、養老院以及所有州一級政府雇員中開展強制性疫苗接種。令人驚訝的是,工會、兩黨政要和商界領袖中無人對此提出異議。拉蒙特針對南方一些州接連出現的醫院飽和情況評論到:“可悲的是,很多地區的醫院往往已經不堪重負或瀕臨飽和。我們絕不會讓這種情況出現在康涅狄格?!?/p>

通過以下兩張美國疾病控制和預防中心給出的佛羅里達州和康涅狄格州的公共衛生結果對比圖不難發現,面對同一個國家、同一時期內出現的同樣疾病,不同的領導者會帶來怎樣不同的結果。盡管康涅狄格州在疫苗問世前的那段時間里形勢嚴峻,但情況隨后卻發生了顯著變化。兩個州的差異無法歸于年齡因素,因為這兩州居民的平均年齡均為41歲左右,而且康涅狄格州各個年齡段居民的健康狀況均好于佛州居民。

截至目前,今年佛羅里達州疫情死亡人數

截至目前,今年康涅狄格州疫情死亡人數

隨著德爾塔變體毒株肆虐全美,東北部地區和南方各州公眾健康狀況的差異愈發明顯。從下圖可見,康涅狄格州與佛羅里達州的差異也是各自周邊地區的縮影。新冠疫情爆發一年半以來,我們已經在設計有效的公共衛生對策方面積累了大量知識和經驗。各地公眾健康的差異并非德爾塔變體病毒肆虐、人口統計學差異、醫療條件或環境因素造成,而應該歸于各地領導力水平的差距。

領導力不容小覷,它不僅會影響政府應對公共衛生危機的效率,也決定著危機時期的個體觀念和群體意識。

意識形態極端主義已經給美國帶來了不必要的死亡??杀氖?,各州間的政治分歧竟導致其在衛生防疫措施方面的巨大差異,包括疫苗接種和口罩佩戴狀況。所有民主國家都存在意識形態差異和激烈的政治競爭,世界各地對待疫苗和口罩的態度也不盡相同,但沒有哪個地區像美國這般,將防疫態度與政治意識緊密掛鉤。英國、印度和以色列是三個典型例子,這三個國家均面臨嚴峻的疫情,各自國內的政治分歧不亞于美國,但均未影響其衛生防疫措施。然而在美國,如下圖所示,政治因素卻強化了人們對公共衛生措施的抵制,使得個體態度愈發強硬,惡化了疫情及其對美國人生活和經濟的影響。

康涅狄格和佛羅里達的州長均擁有哈佛大學(Harvard)和耶魯大學(Yale)的本科及研究生學歷,兩人的領導方式差異無法用受教育程度解釋。這種差異也非資歷深淺造成,而是源于各人的能力和個性。羅恩·德桑蒂斯精明世故,不惜扮演反智角色以謀取政治利益;內德·拉蒙特則努力做好本職工作,積極尋求業已掌握的關于疫情的最佳科學知識和證據,以期挽救選民生命。

正如締造了現代佛州的商業大亨沃爾特·迪斯尼所言:“在我看來,無論何時何地,勇氣都是領導力的主要體現?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)

杰弗里·索南菲爾德是耶魯大學管理學院(Yale School of Management)高級副院長、管理實踐專業教授、首席執行領導力學院(Chief Executive Leadership Institute)院長。安賈尼·賈因是耶魯大學管理學院學術副院長、管理實踐專業教授。

譯者:胡萌琦

行政權力往往會受到復雜的地緣政治變化、反復無常的金融市場、顛覆性的新技術和重大自然災害等因素的限制,但關鍵領導人仍然可以對數百萬選民產生或積極或消極的深遠影響。面對新冠疫情的再次升級,美國佛羅里達州州長和康涅狄格州州長的不同做法體現了領導者個人的潛在影響力。

今年夏天,由于美國南方若干州的州長嘩眾取寵、耍弄政治手腕,公共衛生領域噩耗不斷。佛羅里達、得克薩斯和密蘇里州的新冠病例激增,致使德爾塔變體毒株迅速傳播。盡管這三州的人口僅為全美的17%,新發病例占比卻高達40%。三個州的州長無視科學和證據,采取玩世不恭的強硬立場,禁止雇主強制雇員接種疫苗和在室內佩戴口罩,甚至置尚不能接種疫苗的幼齡學童的安全于不顧。

佛州州長羅恩·德桑蒂斯甚至威脅說,如果學校按照美國疾病控制和預防中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)的指南要求教職員工采取佩戴口罩等保護性措施,就將削減教育經費和教職工薪酬。盡管如此,仍然有10個學區不顧德桑蒂斯的威脅,強制要求人們佩戴口罩。此外,迪士尼(Disney)、嘉年華郵輪公司(Carnival Cruise Line)、皇家加勒比郵輪公司(Royal Caribbean)以及挪威郵輪公司(Norwegian Cruise Line)也冒著每次被罰款5000美元的危險,拒絕服從德桑蒂斯關于乘客疫苗護照的禁令。

眼下,佛州各家醫院的急診室和重癥監護室已經接近飽和,90%的重癥監護床位被占用,其中大多數是新冠肺炎患者。這些住院病患90%以上沒有接種疫苗,佛州12歲至64歲人群的疫苗接種率僅為三分之一。

面對佛州大量居民尚未接種疫苗、極易感染德爾塔變體病毒的現狀,德桑蒂斯的回應是聽取那些反對佩戴口罩者的意見,而正是這些人,拋開科學研制、安全有效的疫苗,卻在鼓吹伊維菌素、羥基氯喹等藥效未經證實的牲畜驅蟲劑。

相反,康涅狄格州州長內德·拉蒙特則從習慣疫情爆發初期就依靠科學的防疫方法。早在2020年3月宣布新冠疫情時起,他便召集全球著名的病毒學家、微生物學家、流行病學家和商業領袖組成顧問小組,拋開意識形態影響,堅持依靠科學、證據和明智的管理措施開展工作。他與先前的唐納德·特朗普政府高層以及后來的喬·拜登政府領導人合作,令州內生產未曾有一天中斷,確保了所需的防護器材的供應,使學校得以提前開學。拉蒙特還積極促成了全美范圍內每周一次的州長會議,不嘩眾取寵,而是默默地開展跨黨派、跨部門合作,尋求高效解決問題。

正如拉蒙特最近所言:“我們的重啟委員會成員包括能夠幫助我們擺脫困境的科學家和大企業領導人,我在州政府內所做的努力就是讓更多的人可以參與到商討與決策中來?!彼炔粸檎文康某爸S科學家,也沒有恐嚇政府官員或威脅商業領袖。在此努力下,該州各年齡段的疫苗接種率均超過75%,達到全美前兩位,90%的老年人也接種了疫苗;而因為新冠肺炎導致的死亡率則在保持較低水平,在全美50個州中位列第35位。

本著這種致力于解決問題的工作方式和協調合作的領導風格,拉蒙特呼吁在學校、養老院以及所有州一級政府雇員中開展強制性疫苗接種。令人驚訝的是,工會、兩黨政要和商界領袖中無人對此提出異議。拉蒙特針對南方一些州接連出現的醫院飽和情況評論到:“可悲的是,很多地區的醫院往往已經不堪重負或瀕臨飽和。我們絕不會讓這種情況出現在康涅狄格?!?/p>

通過以下兩張美國疾病控制和預防中心給出的佛羅里達州和康涅狄格州的公共衛生結果對比圖不難發現,面對同一個國家、同一時期內出現的同樣疾病,不同的領導者會帶來怎樣不同的結果。盡管康涅狄格州在疫苗問世前的那段時間里形勢嚴峻,但情況隨后卻發生了顯著變化。兩個州的差異無法歸于年齡因素,因為這兩州居民的平均年齡均為41歲左右,而且康涅狄格州各個年齡段居民的健康狀況均好于佛州居民。

隨著德爾塔變體毒株肆虐全美,東北部地區和南方各州公眾健康狀況的差異愈發明顯。從下圖可見,康涅狄格州與佛羅里達州的差異也是各自周邊地區的縮影。新冠疫情爆發一年半以來,我們已經在設計有效的公共衛生對策方面積累了大量知識和經驗。各地公眾健康的差異并非德爾塔變體病毒肆虐、人口統計學差異、醫療條件或環境因素造成,而應該歸于各地領導力水平的差距。

領導力不容小覷,它不僅會影響政府應對公共衛生危機的效率,也決定著危機時期的個體觀念和群體意識。

意識形態極端主義已經給美國帶來了不必要的死亡??杀氖?,各州間的政治分歧竟導致其在衛生防疫措施方面的巨大差異,包括疫苗接種和口罩佩戴狀況。所有民主國家都存在意識形態差異和激烈的政治競爭,世界各地對待疫苗和口罩的態度也不盡相同,但沒有哪個地區像美國這般,將防疫態度與政治意識緊密掛鉤。英國、印度和以色列是三個典型例子,這三個國家均面臨嚴峻的疫情,各自國內的政治分歧不亞于美國,但均未影響其衛生防疫措施。然而在美國,如下圖所示,政治因素卻強化了人們對公共衛生措施的抵制,使得個體態度愈發強硬,惡化了疫情及其對美國人生活和經濟的影響。

康涅狄格和佛羅里達的州長均擁有哈佛大學(Harvard)和耶魯大學(Yale)的本科及研究生學歷,兩人的領導方式差異無法用受教育程度解釋。這種差異也非資歷深淺造成,而是源于各人的能力和個性。羅恩·德桑蒂斯精明世故,不惜扮演反智角色以謀取政治利益;內德·拉蒙特則努力做好本職工作,積極尋求業已掌握的關于疫情的最佳科學知識和證據,以期挽救選民生命。

正如締造了現代佛州的商業大亨沃爾特·迪斯尼所言:“在我看來,無論何時何地,勇氣都是領導力的主要體現?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)

杰弗里·索南菲爾德是耶魯大學管理學院(Yale School of Management)高級副院長、管理實踐專業教授、首席執行領導力學院(Chief Executive Leadership Institute)院長。安賈尼·賈因是耶魯大學管理學院學術副院長、管理實踐專業教授。

譯者:胡萌琦

Executive power is often circumscribed by complex geopolitical dynamics, volatile financial markets, disruptive new technologies, and tragic natural disasters. But key leaders still can have a profound impact—positive or negative—on millions of constituents. A comparison of Florida’s and Connecticut’s governors in their contrasting approach to the resurgence of the coronavirus reveals the consequential potential of individual leaders.

This summer, tragic public-health news was exacerbated by historic levels of political grandstanding by several Southern state governors. The rapid spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant was driven by a surge of new cases in Florida, Texas, and Missouri—as these states accounted for an astounding 40% of new U.S. coronavirus cases despite representing only 17% of the nation’s population. Ignoring science and evidence, the governors of these three states have taken a rigid, cynical stance, forbidding vaccine mandates by employers and mandatory indoor mask usage—even in cases where such mandates were intended to protect young schoolchildren ineligible for vaccines.

In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis even threatened to cut off funding and educators’ salaries for schools that required protective masks in compliance with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines. Nonetheless, 10 school districts defied DeSantis by issuing mask mandates. Similarly, Disney, Carnival Cruise Line, and Royal Caribbean joined Norwegian Cruise Line in defiance of DeSantis’s ban on passenger vaccination passports, despite being threatened with fines of $5,000 for each such violation of his decree.

Florida’s hospital emergency rooms and intensive care units are now reaching capacity, with 90% of ICU beds occupied, the majority of them by COVID patients. More than 90% of these inpatients are unvaccinated; overall only one-third of Floridians between ages 12 and 64 are vaccinated.

DeSantis’s response to such wide swaths of the unvaccinated Florida population suffering from the highly contagious Delta variant has been to consult with anti-mask advocates who promote the horse parasite drug ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine, unproven elixirs, instead of scientifically developed, safe, and highly effective vaccines.

In contrast, Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont has been relying on a science-based approach from the outset of the pandemic. He pulled together globally renowned virologists, microbiologists, epidemiologists, and business leaders in March of 2020, just as the pandemic was declared, and kept such advisory panels working to solve problems by relying on science, evidence, and smart management, independent of ideology. Accordingly, he worked with both top Trump administration and later top Biden administration leaders to keep manufacturing flowing without a day’s interruption, ensuring the needed supply of protective material to open schools early. Lamont also catalyzed a new nationwide weekly meeting of the nation’s governors, favoring quiet, effective, bipartisan, cross-sector problem-solving instead of seeking the public limelight.

As Lamont recently explained, “Our reopen committee included the scientists and the big business leaders that we needed to help us, and I’ve tried to do that throughout state government—get a wider variety of people at the table.” He did not mock scientists, intimidate public officials, or threaten business leaders as foils for political grandstanding. This resulted in the nation’s highest or second highest vaccination rates for every age group, from 75% upward—including 90% of seniors—and one of the lowest COVID-19 death rates in the nation (Connecticut is 35th out of 50 by that measure).

This focused approach to problem-solving and collaborative leadership style allowed Lamont to call for vaccine mandates in schools, nursing homes, and for all state employees recently—astoundingly without protest from unions, partisan political leaders of either party, or business leaders. Lamont pointed to heat maps of Southern state infections with overflowing hospitals and declared, “Sadly, in many cases, they have hospitals in different regions who are overwhelmed or close to being overwhelmed. We’re not gonna let that happen in Connecticut, and that is not happening in Connecticut.”

Just glancing at the two contrasting CDC charts of public health outcomes for Florida versus Connecticut below—showing the impact of the same disease, in the same country, over the same time period—illustrates the difference leaders can make. Even though Connecticut was hard hit in the pre-vaccine phase of the pandemic, the post-vaccine outcomes are dramatically different. This difference is not explained by age patterns: The average age in both states is about 41 years old, but the health outcomes of Connecticut residents tower over those of Floridians in every age bracket.

As the Delta variant rages across the country, the divergence of health outcomes is especially notable between the Northeast and the South. The map below shows that the divergence between Connecticut and Florida is reflected in a wider region surrounding each state. A year and a half into the pandemic, we have accumulated a great deal of knowledge and experience in designing effective public health responses. The divergence of health outcomes across the country is the result not of differences in the prevalence of the Delta variant, population demographics, access to health care, or environmental conditions; it is attributable at this point principally to differences in leadership.

Leadership matters. Leadership matters not only in determining the effectiveness of government’s response to the public health crisis, but in shaping both individual opinions and the sense of common purpose.

Ideological extremism has caused needless deaths in our country. It is tragic that political differences among the states have resulted in a sharp divergence with respect to health-protective behaviors—vaccination and masking among them. Ideological differences and bitter political rivalries exist in all democracies, and individual attitudes toward vaccination and masking vary widely within all regions of the world, but nowhere else are these attitudes as closely aligned with political ideologies as they have become in the U.S. The U.K., India, and Israel are just three examples: In each country, the pandemic remains a grave danger, but each country’s political cleavages, no less intractable than in the U.S., are largely unrelated to health-protective behaviors. In the U.S., the political reinforcement of resistance to public health measures has hardened individual attitudes, as shown in the chart below, worsening the pandemic and its impact on American lives and the economy.

The contrasting leadership approaches between the governors of Connecticut and Florida are not explainable by educational sophistication: Each governor holds college and graduate school degrees from both Harvard and Yale. The differences are not explained by credentials but rather by competence and character. Ron DeSantis is a smart person cynically willing to play the role of an anti-intellectual for political gain, while Ned Lamont is trying to do his job to save the lives of his constituents, seeking the best scientific knowledge and evidence we have gathered on the pandemic.

As Walt Disney, one of the business leaders who shaped modern Florida, once said, “Courage is the main quality of leadership, in my opinion, no matter where it is exercised.”

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is a senior associate dean and professor of management practice at the Yale School of Management, where he is president of the Chief Executive Leadership Institute. Anjani Jain is deputy dean for academic programs and professor in the practice of management at the Yale School of Management.

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